Futures Expirations Have No Influence On Bitcoin Prices – Report

Announcements, FinTech, Investing | October 19, 2018 By:

Cindicator, a tokenized FinTech company developing Hybrid Intelligence (human + artificial intelligence) for asset management, has issued a report, Bitcoin Futures: Market Evolution, providing a new analysis of the emerging market for bitcoin (BTC) futures.

The company platform is used by more than 117,000 analysts whose forecasts on crypto and traditional markets are collected and enhanced with a set of machine-learning models and neural networks. The result is trading indicators, predictive analytics, and sentiments that are used for investment decision-making.

For this analysis, Cindicator researchers first looked at volumes on futures and volumes on crypto exchanges in bitcoin terms in order to have an idea about the liquidity and the development of the market. The second part of the report is dedicated to BTC price and volatility movements around futures expiry dates in order to find evidence of recurrent market behavior during these periods.

The full report provides a month-by-month breakdown of this analysis dating back to when the first BTC futures began to expire in January 2018.

The highlights of its conclusions:

  • The presence of bearish trends during price actions can influence BTC prices in a much stronger way with respect to positioning around futures expiries

  • The common idea that bitcoin’s price is always dumped before expiries and pumped right after them has no solid basis (although there are cases when expiration dates should be considered).

  • This analysis should be reconsidered when futures and OTC volumes start to converge, something not so unlikely given the possible entry of institutional investors into the crypto market influenced by, in part, lower bitcoin volatility and the bearish market trend.

“Looking at the past movements of bitcoin’s price, we can see that there is no golden rule for trading based on futures expiration dates. The overall market trends can influence bitcoin prices in a much stronger way,” said Simon Keusen, Head of Analytics at Cindicator. “Our conclusions from this research are a good representation of the overall value we seek to provide to crypto investors by presenting different reasons for why certain market movements might happen and encouraging doing research and using analytical tools.”

The full Bitcoin Futures: Market Evolution report is available for download here.